US Tourism Is Shrinking. Will the World Cup Help (Or Be the Next Victim)

2026 was supposed to be an incredible year for US tourism. The FIFA World Cup alone is expected to bring over a million international visitors. But right now, the industry is facing a prolonged slump.

While global international arrivals rose 4% in 2025, the US saw a decline of around 5.4% to 6.3%. Among large advanced economies, America is the only one seeing tourism drop.

For short-term rental hosts, fewer international tourists means less demand in major gateway cities and traditional tourist destinations. Here's what's happening, why it matters, and a few tips to adapt your STR strategy.

The Numbers: How Bad Is the US Tourism Slump?

Overseas visitors to the US dropped between 5.5% and 6.3% in 2025, according to projections from Oxford Economics and the US Travel Association. That descent continued into 2026.

In January 2026, overseas arrivals were down roughly 3.5% to 4.8% compared to January 2025. Not once since May 2025 has there been a monthly uptick. That's nine straight months of decline.

The drop in Canadian travel has been especially sharp. Canadian visits to the United States fell approximately 25.7% during 2025. And now, Mexico is the leading origin country for travelers. That's a shift we haven't seen since before the mid-1990s. In January 2026, arrivals from Mexico hit nearly 1.81 million, while those from Canada totaled 1.19 million.

The economic impact is significant. According to a WTTC analysis, international tourist spending in the United States for last year was expected to drop by $12.5 billion.

What's Really Behind the Continuous Decline?

Several factors are keeping international tourists away. None of these is new, but together they have created a powerful headwind for US tourism.

Higher costs. The ESTA fee under the Visa Waiver Program has increased. A $250 "visa integrity fee" has also been introduced for non-immigrant tourist and business visas. Traveling to the United States is simply more expensive now.

Tighter border procedures. Travelers now face longer wait times at airports and land entry points. Reports of officials inspecting personal electronics have become more common. These procedures have made the entry process feel more intrusive for many visitors.  With reports of social media checks, the invasion of privacy is acting as a deterrent. A proposed change could make it mandatory for travelers to share five years of social media history when applying for ESTA.

Travel restrictions. The US has enacted travel bans on dozens of countries, including four nations that have qualified for the World Cup: Iran, Senegal, the Ivory Coast, and Haiti.

Shifting perceptions. There's a reason this slump has also been named the "Trump Slump". It's also driven by political factors. Coverage of arrests, tighter checks, and new rules has sharpened disapproval, especially among travelers from Canada and certain European regions. How the country is perceived overseas is changing, and that perception affects travel decisions.

Can the FIFA World Cup Effect Reverse the Trend?

The upcoming FIFA World Cup was supposed to be a major tourism boost. In November 2025, Tourism Economics published a report projecting the US would welcome 1.24 million international visitors for the World Cup. Of those, 742,000 (60%) were expected to be incremental trips that would not have happened otherwise.

The report also stated: "After a challenging 2025 for international overnight trips to the US (down 6.3%), we project inbound to rebound 3.7% in 2026, with nearly one-third of the growth tied to the tournament."

But early 2026 data suggest those hopes may have been overly optimistic.

Flight bookings from Europe to the US for summer 2026 are down more than 14% year over year, according to aviation analytics company Cirium. Hospitality groups also report lackluster demand for FIFA room blocks. Hotels reserved rooms for ticket-purchasing fans two years ago, but many are still waiting for bookings. The hosts who joined Airbnb for the $750 bonus may not get as many bookings as the company expected.

As Aran Ryan, Director of Industry Studies at Tourism Economics, put it, while the World Cup is expected to help drive incremental inbound visits this summer, negative US sentiment and concerns around border and immigration policies are making visitors hesitant. These will not be "reversed by the World Cup alone."

Jan Freitag, national director of hospitality market analytics at CoStar, added: "The overall numbers are likely going to be a little bit disappointing if the trends hold that we're talking about today."

We're still expecting higher ADRs and occupancy for the World Cup. But it might not be as high as early reports predicted.

What This Means & What You Should Do as an Airbnb Host

The decline in international tourists affects major gateway cities first. New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Miami, and Orlando rely heavily on overseas visitors. As international travelers pull back, hotels may lower rates or chase domestic guests, creating more competition for STRs in those markets.

Hosts who rely heavily on international travelers should consider diversifying their guest base. Here are a few ways to adapt.

Target drive-to markets. When choosing an investment market for Airbnb, look for locations within a few hours' drive of major population centers. Guests are more likely to take shorter, closer trips when international travel feels uncertain or expensive. Quick drive-to mini-cations and staycations are popular right now.

Focus on group-friendly amenities. If your avatar is mainly solo travelers or digital nomads, consider adding features that attract small friend groups and couples. A pool table, arcade games, a karaoke setup, or outdoor spaces designed for group dining can make your property the obvious choice for local getaways.

Leverage local events and seasons. Even without international tourists, local festivals, sports events, concerts, and holiday weekends can fill your calendar. Build your STR marketing around these predictable demand drivers. Add keywords to your direct booking website and your listing.

Offer flexible cancellation policies. We love strict cancellation policies. But regional travelers often book closer to their travel dates. A moderate cancellation policy can capture bookings from guests who are hesitant to commit far in advance.

Study the competition. Do you see Airbnbs with high occupancy and high ADRs in your market even as the economy is unstable? Analyze them to see what they're doing differently and find out what you can incorporate into your own STR. Don't be a copycat, analyze, and then make it your own. There might be one simple, affordable amenity you're missing with a high ROI.  

Final Thoughts

The headlines aren't lying, the US tourism is in a genuine slump. International arrivals have been falling for nine consecutive months. The World Cup may not deliver the boost many hoped for, and hosts who rely heavily on international travelers should pay attention.

The good news is that domestic travel remains strong. By targeting drive-to markets, adding more experience-driven amenities, and optimizing for local events, hosts can weather this downturn and continue to generate strong revenue.

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